The maturity effect of stock index futures: Speculation or carry arbitrage?

Using the implementation of trading restrictions on CSI 300 index futures market as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper examines the maturity effect of stock index futures and its determinants. The results show that the maturity effect changes from weakly positive to significantly negative after trading restrictions are implemented. We find that the change in the maturity effect is rooted in the speculative effect, which is measured by the time pattern of price sensitivity to information, while there is a lack of support for the carry arbitrage effect on the maturity effect of index futures. Our findings provide an opportunity to better understand volatility dynamics in the equity futures market.     

Trading activity and price discovery in Bitcoin futures markets

This study examines the impact of trading activities on price discovery in the Bitcoin futures markets. We find that trades of hedgers are positively correlated with the modified information shares in both CME and CBOE futures markets, suggesting that their trading promotes futures market efficiency. Retailers’ trading activity relates negatively to the price discovery of the CME Bitcoin futures and thus destabilizes the market. Speculators exert positive (negative) impact on the price discovery in the CME (CBOE) Bitcoin futures. Our finding that CME’s Bitcoin futures exhibit superior price discovery than CBOE’s provides plausible justification for CBOE’s decision in March 2019 to suspend further listings of Bitcoin futures contracts.     

Are USDA reports still news to changing crop markets?

This study investigates whether major USDA reports still provide important news to changing crop markets. The news component of each report, or market “surprise,” is measured as a difference between the USDA estimate and its private expectation in corn, soybeans, and wheat markets. Changes in the relevance of USDA information are assessed by examining changes in the magnitude of market surprises and shifts in the futures price reaction to these surprises, which isolates the impact of each report. The stable size of market surprises over time suggests that competition from alternative data sources has not reduced the news component of USDA crop reports. Increasing price reaction to most reports, including those facing competition from alternative information sources, suggests that value of public information may be enhanced in uncertain markets affected by structural changes.     

Covariance breakdowns and connectedness of crude oil futures markets with non-synchronous data

ABSTRACT

This article identifies the breakdowns in the covariance of three benchmark crude oil futures markets (WTI, Brent and Dubai) and investigates the changes of market connectedness across the breakdown periods. As the crude oil futures are traded in different regions, this article eliminates the non-synchronous trading data by employing the Vector Moving Average structure and the Bayesian data augmentation approach, which keeps the integrity of original data without changing its properties. The results show that there are significant breaks in the covariance structure of crude oil futures markets. The breakdown periods are consistent with the periods when the market volatilities are at high level and the returns are volatile. The changes of market connectedness are independent of the covariance states, which supports the globalization hypothesis for the crude oil market. The results also suggest that there is more information flow out of the WTI than to the WTI during the sample period, particularly during the breakdown periods in 2008–2009.     

利用信道状态信息的室内定位技术

多径效应导致基于信号接收强度（RSSI）的室内定位方法精度不高，采用更细粒度的物理层信道状态信息（CSI）可以区分不同路径，提高定位精度。在已有基于CSI室内定位方法的基础上，通过改进对数距离路径损耗模型，得到CSI与传输距离的关系，并结合目标位置所测得的CSI值回归出目标与发射端的距离，最后通过三边定位法预测出目标的位置坐标。实验表明，相比基于RSSI的定位方法以及已有的基于CSI的定位方法，所提方法2 m以内的误差概率提高了将近40%和20%，有效提高了定位精度。     

省思与规制:我国跨境期货交易法律困境及应对

我国推进期货市场"走出去"及国际化战略须以跨境期货交易法律机制构建为前提。文章通过厘定跨境期货交易内涵边界及监管正当性,省思主要法律困境及应对思路,提出应致力于跨境期货交易立法监管理念创新,确立跨境交易监管认同机制,提升跨境期货衍生品交易经纪能力,适度扩大衍生品跨境投资参与主体范围,逐步取消QDII投资品种限制,并从跨境期货交易运行保障、立法监管、风险控制以及解纷机制等方面建构系统法律保护体系,切实保障跨境交易整体性金融安全。     

How does leverage in stock market influence the margin of stock index futures?

In this article, we propose a margin-setting model under the assumption of extreme stock price changes. Specifically, extreme stock price changes are caused by the positive feedback effect of leverage and market impact. By introducing these factors into the futures price changes through a cost-of-carry model for setting the margin of stock index futures, we find that leverage and market impact in stock market are positively correlated with the margin.